I don’t know if you recall, but I posted a long ol’ rant about why I wasn’t going to watch Alias anymore a while back. Since then, I haven’t, just like I said.

But you know what? When it starts up again next week in the final run toward the series finale, I actually am going to watch.

So what changed?

Honestly, nothing at all. As far as I know they still tried to let things go on too long, they still folded to stupid actor demands and they still have displayed no indication that they have a clue how to wrap this all up. Yet, I feel as though I must watch. Not because I care about Alias any more, but rather because seeing what they do with the endgame on that show will give me a good indication about where I need to set my expecations for Lost.

I look at it this way: The Alias crew (including Lost creator J.J. Abrams) has written itself into a monster hole. Getting out with any semblance of grace is going to require some very, very good writing. I see this going one of three ways:

1. The end is a massive letdown. In keeping with the direction the show has been going since season three, there is nothing redeeming about the series finale. In this scenario, I lower my expectations for Lost to the floor. As in, “I’ll enjoy it while it’s good but the moment it starts getting lame, I’m outro.” I have no interest in investing myself in shows that are just going to end up sucking eventually.
2. The end is a Matrix-like disappointment but not a complete failure. The Matrix could have ended any number of ways. The way I would have preferred it is not the direction they went, but I could at least see what they were trying to do and respect their choice. If Alias pulls something like this off I’ll remain cautiously optimistic about Lost and hope I never end up writing a bitter diatribe about it down the road.
3. The end is a bonafide blockbuster, shattering my expectations with its awesomeness. If Abrams et al manage to pull this steaming pile of poo out of the fire and craft something worthy of the early seasons from it, I will gladly retract every negative thing I ever said about them and put my trust fully back into their capable hands. I will fear no Lost development and all will be well.

I don’t know how likely that last one is, but I think a clever writer could do something to shake things up. But here’s the catch: Even my all-time favorite TV hero (Joss Whedon) didn’t exactly knock it out of the park with his Buffy and Angel series finales. I’d classify both of them as secret option #4 in which neither show actually ended because you never know when you might want to head back to the well and have some sort of reunion TV movie or whatever. Not exactly the kind of thing that would inspire confidence for Lost, I think something like that would fall into category 1 or at best 2, depending on how clever the execution was.

But either way, here’s my prediction: If Lost doesn’t end after season four, it’s going to totally suck. Someone on a message board suggested that the only acceptably cool conclusion to Lost would be for it not to end and the mysteries to never be revealed. As endlessly frustrating as that would be, I gotta say he had a point. I still say that the show can be done and completed in a satisfactory way if this season’s finale marks the mid-point of the entire run, but unfortunately no one bothers to ask me how stuff should work; so with history as my guide I only hope that this Alias experiment works enough to allow me to keep enjoying Lost as long as possible.

No pressure or anything, Mr. Abrams.